Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Far North District

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Far North District is 40-44 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Far North District depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • The Far North District has a relatively stable migration profile during the forecast period.
  • There is an increase in net migration in most age groups
  • Young and established families aged 35-39 years old with children aged 0-9 years experience consistent net migration gain throughout the forecast period.
  • Mature adults, empty nesters and early retirees aged 40-59 years moving to the District will increase in terms of net migration during the forecast period.
  • Early retirees and retirees aged 60-74 years also contribute to the District’s net migration gain over time.
  • The gain of older adults in the 45-64 age group assumes that an ageing population in the region and continued attractiveness of the District to “seachange” and lifestyle living minded groups will result in more people in this age cohort moving to the District.
  • The historic patterns of those aged 70 years and over moving out of the District will continue as older people move closer to healthcare and aged care facilities outside the District near main centres. This net loss in terms of migration also amplifies by the fact that there will be more residents aged over 70 in the future, enlarging the net migration flows out of the District.
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 87 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: -185 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -218 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -194 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: -46 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: 201 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: 213 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: 187 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: 254 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 422 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 410 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 212 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: -127 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -718 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -1,152 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -195 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: 162 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 420 0 2018 to 2023: 117 0 2018 to 2023: -134 0 2018 to 2023: -177 0 2018 to 2023: -187 0 2018 to 2023: -48 0 2018 to 2023: 138 0 2018 to 2023: 160 0 2018 to 2023: 154 0 2018 to 2023: 200 0 2018 to 2023: 394 0 2018 to 2023: 382 0 2018 to 2023: 191 0 2018 to 2023: -130 0 2018 to 2023: -814 0 2018 to 2023: -1,082 0 2018 to 2023: -232 0 2018 to 2023: 164 0 2018 to 2023: 386 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 115 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: -69 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: -135 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: -145 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: -40 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: 139 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: 140 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: 197 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 354 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 399 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 169 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: -157 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -805 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -1,130 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -243 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: 136 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 323 Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 87 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: -185 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -218 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -194 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: -46 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: 201 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: 213 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: 187 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: 254 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 422 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 410 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 212 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: -127 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -718 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -1,152 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -195 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: 162 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 420 0 2018 to 2023: 117 0 2018 to 2023: -134 0 2018 to 2023: -177 0 2018 to 2023: -187 0 2018 to 2023: -48 0 2018 to 2023: 138 0 2018 to 2023: 160 0 2018 to 2023: 154 0 2018 to 2023: 200 0 2018 to 2023: 394 0 2018 to 2023: 382 0 2018 to 2023: 191 0 2018 to 2023: -130 0 2018 to 2023: -814 0 2018 to 2023: -1,082 0 2018 to 2023: -232 0 2018 to 2023: 164 0 2018 to 2023: 386 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 115 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: -69 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: -135 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: -145 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: -40 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: 139 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: 140 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: 197 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 354 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 399 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 169 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: -157 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -805 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -1,130 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -243 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: 136 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 323
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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