Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Far North District

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Far North District will increase by an average of 133 dwellings per annum to 31,578 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Far North District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2013 to 2043
Far North DistrictChange in dwellings between 2013 and 2043
Areanumber%
Far North District+3,979+14.4
Ahipara and Herekino Area+204+14.8
Bay of Island Rural+280+13.4
Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa+320+18.3
Kaikohe Township+39+2.7
Kaitaia Township+117+5.7
Kapiro Area+152+12.2
Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha+421+15.4
Kawakawa - Moerewa+93+8.9
Kerikeri Township+502+33.2
Kerikeri Township Surrounds+639+44.7
Kohukohu and Hokianga North area+90+9.0
Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay+442+35.1
North Cape - Houhora - Awanui+156+9.2
Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds+130+10.0
Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls+224+12.6
Rawene - Opononi - Omapere and Hokianga South Area+110+5.7
Russell and Rawhiti and Surrounds+60+3.0

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 31,578 2042 Total dwellings: 31,461 2041 Total dwellings: 31,344 2040 Total dwellings: 31,227 2039 Total dwellings: 31,110 2038 Total dwellings: 30,990 2037 Total dwellings: 30,867 2036 Total dwellings: 30,744 2035 Total dwellings: 30,621 2034 Total dwellings: 30,498 2033 Total dwellings: 30,375 2032 Total dwellings: 30,254 2031 Total dwellings: 30,130 2030 Total dwellings: 30,003 2029 Total dwellings: 29,870 2028 Total dwellings: 29,734 2027 Total dwellings: 29,597 2026 Total dwellings: 29,456 2025 Total dwellings: 29,316 2024 Total dwellings: 29,171 2023 Total dwellings: 29,024 2022 Total dwellings: 28,874 2021 Total dwellings: 28,727 2020 Total dwellings: 28,578 2019 Total dwellings: 28,430 2018 Total dwellings: 28,280 2017 Total dwellings: 28,134 2016 Total dwellings: 27,989 2015 Total dwellings: 27,851 2014 Total dwellings: 27,722 2043 Total dwellings: 31,578 2042 Total dwellings: 31,461 2041 Total dwellings: 31,344 2040 Total dwellings: 31,227 2039 Total dwellings: 31,110 2038 Total dwellings: 30,990 2037 Total dwellings: 30,867 2036 Total dwellings: 30,744 2035 Total dwellings: 30,621 2034 Total dwellings: 30,498 2033 Total dwellings: 30,375 2032 Total dwellings: 30,254 2031 Total dwellings: 30,130 2030 Total dwellings: 30,003 2029 Total dwellings: 29,870 2028 Total dwellings: 29,734 2027 Total dwellings: 29,597 2026 Total dwellings: 29,456 2025 Total dwellings: 29,316 2024 Total dwellings: 29,171 2023 Total dwellings: 29,024 2022 Total dwellings: 28,874 2021 Total dwellings: 28,727 2020 Total dwellings: 28,578 2019 Total dwellings: 28,430 2018 Total dwellings: 28,280 2017 Total dwellings: 28,134 2016 Total dwellings: 27,989 2015 Total dwellings: 27,851 2014 Total dwellings: 27,722 2043 Forecast development: 117 2042 Forecast development: 117 2041 Forecast development: 117 2040 Forecast development: 117 2039 Forecast development: 120 2038 Forecast development: 123 2037 Forecast development: 123 2036 Forecast development: 123 2035 Forecast development: 123 2034 Forecast development: 123 2033 Forecast development: 121 2032 Forecast development: 124 2031 Forecast development: 127 2030 Forecast development: 133 2029 Forecast development: 136 2028 Forecast development: 137 2027 Forecast development: 141 2026 Forecast development: 140 2025 Forecast development: 145 2024 Forecast development: 147 2023 Forecast development: 150 2022 Forecast development: 147 2021 Forecast development: 149 2020 Forecast development: 148 2019 Forecast development: 150 2018 Forecast development: 146 2017 Forecast development: 145 2016 Forecast development: 138 2015 Forecast development: 129 2014 Forecast development: 123
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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