Porirua CityPopulation forecast
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Porirua City

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Porirua City is 35-39 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2018 to 2023.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Porirua City depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • The age specific net migration profiles for Porirua City remain relatively similar throughout the forecast period.
  • Absolute volumes of net gains and losses are also affected by the influx and residential development volumes in different periods.
  • There is a gain of young couples aged 25-29 years and young families with children aged 30-39 (with children aged 0-14 years) – moving to areas such as Aotea and later on the Northern Growth Area where there is housing availability for families and first home owners.
  • A loss of young adults aged 15-24 years relates to younger people leaving the City in search of education and employment opportunities elsewhere (in Wellington, Auckland, Dunedin and regionally for employment opportunities).
  • Slight gain of older adults aged 40-44 years and later in the forecast period, of 45-54 year olds too who move to the area due to various new housing opportunities in the City.
  • Slight losses of empty nesters and early retirees aged 55-64 years.
  • Slight gains of the elderly in the area, moving to aged care and retirement home facilities.
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 97 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: 88 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -46 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -47 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: -124 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: -134 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: -108 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: -65 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: -22 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 280 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 452 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 446 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: -92 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -548 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -392 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -119 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: -71 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 62 0 2018 to 2023: 89 0 2018 to 2023: 113 0 2018 to 2023: -16 0 2018 to 2023: -39 0 2018 to 2023: -86 0 2018 to 2023: -108 0 2018 to 2023: -98 0 2018 to 2023: -56 0 2018 to 2023: -50 0 2018 to 2023: 275 0 2018 to 2023: 494 0 2018 to 2023: 461 0 2018 to 2023: -43 0 2018 to 2023: -482 0 2018 to 2023: -322 0 2018 to 2023: -81 0 2018 to 2023: -15 0 2018 to 2023: 99 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 1 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: 115 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: 4 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: -22 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: -84 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: -71 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: -83 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: -54 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: -57 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 204 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 429 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 464 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: -73 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -586 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -415 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -102 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: -52 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 50 Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 97 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: 88 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -46 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -47 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: -124 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: -134 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: -108 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: -65 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: -22 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 280 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 452 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 446 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: -92 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -548 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -392 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -119 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: -71 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 62 0 2018 to 2023: 89 0 2018 to 2023: 113 0 2018 to 2023: -16 0 2018 to 2023: -39 0 2018 to 2023: -86 0 2018 to 2023: -108 0 2018 to 2023: -98 0 2018 to 2023: -56 0 2018 to 2023: -50 0 2018 to 2023: 275 0 2018 to 2023: 494 0 2018 to 2023: 461 0 2018 to 2023: -43 0 2018 to 2023: -482 0 2018 to 2023: -322 0 2018 to 2023: -81 0 2018 to 2023: -15 0 2018 to 2023: 99 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 1 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: 115 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: 4 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: -22 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: -84 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: -71 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: -83 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: -54 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: -57 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 204 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 429 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 464 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: -73 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -586 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -415 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -102 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: -52 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 50
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2016.
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