Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Whanganui District

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Whanganui District is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Whanganui District depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Gain of young adults and young families aged from their mid/late 20s to their 30s with children aged 0-5 years.
  • Loss of young adults aged 18-24 leaving the District for education and employment opportunities elsewhere, for example Palmerston North, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin. They may return to the District after attaining education and establish their families here given that house affordability is better than Wellington or Palmerston North
  • Gain of mature adults aged 40-49 years too who may also represent either new arrivals or returning residents years after living elsewhere.
  • Some gain of older age groups in the future, representing 50-59 year olds who may be empty nesters and early retirees selling up elsewhere in the region and buying up property in Whanganui.
  • Little change in older age groups 70+ years old and in the future there are slight losses of people aged 70-84 who are leaving the District to be closer to aged care or health services elsewhere.