Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Whanganui District

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Whanganui District is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Whanganui District depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Gain of young adults and young families aged from their mid/late 20s to their 30s with children aged 0-5 years.
  • Loss of young adults aged 18-24 leaving the District for education and employment opportunities elsewhere, for example Palmerston North, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin. They may return to the District after attaining education and establish their families here given that house affordability is better than Wellington or Palmerston North
  • Gain of mature adults aged 40-49 years too who may also represent either new arrivals or returning residents years after living elsewhere.
  • Some gain of older age groups in the future, representing 50-59 year olds who may be empty nesters and early retirees selling up elsewhere in the region and buying up property in Whanganui.
  • Little change in older age groups 70+ years old and in the future there are slight losses of people aged 70-84 who are leaving the District to be closer to aged care or health services elsewhere.
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 144 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: -48 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -100 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -28 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: 30 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: 70 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: 67 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: 108 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: 159 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 239 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 160 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 104 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: -8 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -400 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -635 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -32 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: 113 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 376 0 2018 to 2023: 145 0 2018 to 2023: -23 0 2018 to 2023: -63 0 2018 to 2023: -16 0 2018 to 2023: 45 0 2018 to 2023: 54 0 2018 to 2023: 32 0 2018 to 2023: 79 0 2018 to 2023: 113 0 2018 to 2023: 224 0 2018 to 2023: 156 0 2018 to 2023: 84 0 2018 to 2023: -24 0 2018 to 2023: -502 0 2018 to 2023: -602 0 2018 to 2023: -88 0 2018 to 2023: 123 0 2018 to 2023: 334 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 124 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: -6 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: -41 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: 17 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: 55 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: 66 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: -4 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: 11 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: 74 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 181 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 119 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 98 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: -33 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -462 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -691 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -57 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: 162 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 333 Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 144 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: -48 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -100 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -28 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: 30 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: 70 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: 67 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: 108 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: 159 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 239 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 160 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 104 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: -8 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -400 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -635 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -32 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: 113 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 376 0 2018 to 2023: 145 0 2018 to 2023: -23 0 2018 to 2023: -63 0 2018 to 2023: -16 0 2018 to 2023: 45 0 2018 to 2023: 54 0 2018 to 2023: 32 0 2018 to 2023: 79 0 2018 to 2023: 113 0 2018 to 2023: 224 0 2018 to 2023: 156 0 2018 to 2023: 84 0 2018 to 2023: -24 0 2018 to 2023: -502 0 2018 to 2023: -602 0 2018 to 2023: -88 0 2018 to 2023: 123 0 2018 to 2023: 334 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 124 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: -6 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: -41 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: 17 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: 55 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: 66 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: -4 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: 11 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: 74 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 181 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 119 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 98 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: -33 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -462 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -691 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -57 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: 162 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 333
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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