Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Whanganui District

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Whanganui District indicate a 5.7% decrease in population under working age, a 31.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.2% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Whanganui District - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 2,9706.82,6256.02,6345.8-336
5 to 9 2,8316.52,7976.42,8006.2-31
10 to 14 3,0407.02,9126.62,9286.5-112
15 to 19 3,0367.02,7746.32,6435.8-393
20 to 24 2,3575.42,0584.72,1254.7-232
25 to 29 2,0904.82,0214.62,0614.6-30
30 to 34 2,0604.72,1795.02,2024.9+142
35 to 39 2,2585.22,3065.22,3505.2+92
40 to 44 2,7326.32,4715.62,5985.7-134
45 to 49 2,9366.72,5345.82,7186.0-217
50 to 54 3,2407.42,6846.12,7826.1-458
55 to 59 2,9916.92,8306.42,7686.1-223
60 to 64 2,7006.22,9136.62,7886.2+88
65 to 69 2,4005.52,9646.72,7946.2+395
70 to 74 1,9204.42,6526.02,7076.0+787
75 to 79 1,5503.62,1564.92,4325.4+882
80 to 84 1,2202.81,6123.72,0344.5+814
85 and over1,1702.71,4493.31,8674.1+697
Total persons43,500100.043,939100.045,230100.0+1,730

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 1,867 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 2,034 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 2,432 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 2,707 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 2,794 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 2,788 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 2,768 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 2,782 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 2,718 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 2,598 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 2,350 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 2,202 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 2,061 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 2,125 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 2,643 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 2,928 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 2,800 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 2,634 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 1,449 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 1,612 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 2,156 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 2,652 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 2,964 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 2,913 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 2,830 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 2,684 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 2,534 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 2,471 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 2,306 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 2,179 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 2,021 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 2,058 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 2,774 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 2,912 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 2,797 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 2,625 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 1,170 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 1,220 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 1,550 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 1,920 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 2,400 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 2,700 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 2,991 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 3,240 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 2,936 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 2,732 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 2,258 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 2,060 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 2,090 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 2,357 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 3,036 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 3,040 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 2,831 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 2,970
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 418 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 422 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 276 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 55 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -170 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -125 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -62 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 97 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 185 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 127 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 44 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 22 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 39 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 66 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -131 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 15 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 3 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 279 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 392 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 606 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 732 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 565 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 213 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -161 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -555 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -402 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -261 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 48 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 119 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -69 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -299 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -262 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -127 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -33 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -345
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Whanganui District was ages 50 to 54 , which accounted for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74 , which is expected to increase by 732 and account for 6.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 2,964 persons.

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