Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Allenton East

Births and deaths

In 2017, Hinds South is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.66 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.63 in 2048.

Births are based on the published numbers of births by Area Units from Statistics New Zealand. The fertility rates by age are based on the published numbers of births by age of mother for Area Units by Statistics New Zealand./p>

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Ashburton DistrictYearChange between 2017 and 2048
Area20172048Number
Ashburton District2.322.30-0.03
Allenton East2.242.23-0.01
Allenton West2.342.28-0.06
Ashburton Central2.262.24-0.02
Chertsey2.332.31-0.03
Fairton - Ashburton Northeast2.072.06-0.02
Hampstead2.442.38-0.06
Hinds North2.352.34-0.01
Hinds South2.662.63-0.03
Methven1.941.93-0.01
Mt Somers2.452.43-0.03
Netherby2.272.26-0.01
Rakaia2.592.56-0.03
Tinwald - Plains Railway2.232.22-0.01

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2019.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Ashburton District is based on the published numbers of deaths by age for Area Units by Statistics New Zealand. For historical years, rates are based on totals for Ashburton District, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances.

In 2017, Hinds South is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.66 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.63 in 2048.

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