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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Fairton - Ashburton Northeast

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Fairton - Ashburton Northeast is 5-9 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2013 to 2018.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Ashburton District Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Relatively simililar migration profile over the forecast period, with residential development opportunties driving growth
  • Gain of young and established families aged 30-39 years with children aged 0-9 years
  • Loss of young adults aged 15-24 years leaving the area for education and employment purposes elsewhere
  • Gain of mature adults, empty nesters and early retirees aged 50-64 years moving to the area from elsewhere in the District to be closer to services wirthin Ashburton and because of the availability of housing

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