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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Hinds South

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Hinds South is 30-34 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Ashburton District Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Relatively stable migration profile during the forecast period. This is predominantly a rural area, although there is expected to be some growth in housing around the township of Hinds. Nonetheless, demand remains low over the forecast period and growth in population in likely to be fairly small, with little change through migration. Potential future development around key townships is likely to be accesses by young adults and families, and by empty nesters and retirees
  • Gain of young families and couples (0-4 and 25-39 years), most likely accessing housing opportunity with the intent to start or raise a family
  • Loss of student aged young adults (18-19 years) accessing tertiary education elsewhere
  • Small gain of empty nester and retiree groups (50-64 years), moving to access lifestyle opportunity

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