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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Rakaia

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Rakaia is 30-34 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Ashburton District Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Rakaia is a township primarily servicing the surrounding rural community. There is limited opportunity for growth over the forecast period, meaning that there is very little net change to the population through migration. This leads to a volatile profile, with small fluctuations between losses and gains in many age groups over different periods of the forecast
  • Slight gain of younger couples without children (25-39 years), most likely replacing family households who have accessed larger housing elsewhere as their needs have changed. It is likely that many of these households will subsequently start families
  • Loss of families with dependent children (aged up to 17 years)
  • Loss of young adults, mostly in the student age range (18-19 years) accessing tertiary education opportunities elsewhere
  • loss of retirees and older people aged 60+ years (more so after 2018) as older persons move to larger communities such as Ashburton, to access services and facilities

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