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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Tinwald - Plains Railway

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Tinwald - Plains Railway is 25-29 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Ashburton District Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Relatively simililar migration profile over the forecast period, with a small amount of residential development driving growth, although this slows overtime
  • Small gain of young families (0-4 and 25-34 years)
  • Loss of older families with children aged (9-14 years), most likely accessing alternative housing elsewhere as their housing needs change
  • Loss of young adults mostly of student age (18-19 years) accessing tertiary education opportunities elsewhere
  • Small gain of empty nester and retirees (50-64 years)

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