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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Ashburton District Council

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Ashburton District Council is 30-34 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Ashburton District Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Relatively similar migration pattern throughout the forecast period, declining slightly in the elater periods
  • There is a large loss of young adults aged 18-24 years, although much of this is concentrated in the 18-19 years old cohort, inidicating many young adults move away in order to attend tertiary education, most likely in Christchurch and Dunedin. The loss of 20-24 year olds is substantially smaller, but is likely to be young adults moving in order to access employment opportunities elsewhere
  • Young and established families (0-9 and 25-44 years) experience consistent net migration gain throughout the forecast period
  • Gain of mature adults, empty nesters and early retirees aged 50-64 years moving to the District to access lifestyle opporutnities
  • The historic patterns of those aged 70 years and over moving out of the District will continue as older people move closer to healthcare and aged care facilities outside the District near main centres. This net loss in terms of migration also amplifies by the fact that there will be more residents aged over 70 in the future, enlarging the net migration flows out of the District.

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