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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Mt Somers

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Mt Somers is 25-29 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2018 to 2023.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Ashburton District Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • This is a rural area with limited change to population through migration, with limited demand for residential development, and much of the pattern being explained by smaller older househjolds moving to towns such as Ashburton, and being replaced with younger families with children
  • Loss of young adults aged 15-24 years leaving the area in search of education and employment opportunities elsewhere
  • Gain of young families (0-9 and 25-39 years)
  • Loss of older families (10-17 and 40-54 years)
  • Loss of empty nesters and retirees (50+ years), moving into Ashburton or other townships to be closer to services

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