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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Fairton - Ashburton Northeast

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Fairton - Ashburton Northeast indicate a 60.2% increase in population under working age, a 121.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 49.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Fairton - Ashburton Northeast is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Fairton - Ashburton Northeast - Total persons201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4554.0924.11264.1+72
5 to 9846.21356.11825.9+97
10 to 141057.81647.32177.0+111
15 to 19947.01366.11805.8+85
20 to 24453.3783.51063.4+61
25 to 29352.6602.7812.6+46
30 to 34453.4743.3993.2+54
35 to 39554.11054.71414.6+85
40 to 441007.41396.21866.0+86
45 to 491057.81526.82016.5+96
50 to 541158.51526.82086.7+94
55 to 591168.61707.62257.3+109
60 to 641269.31808.12417.8+115
65 to 691007.41798.02417.8+141
70 to 74947.01607.22277.3+132
75 to 79554.11346.01976.4+142
80 to 84201.5803.61424.6+122
85 and over00.0421.9923.0+92
Total persons1,350100.02,231100.03,090100.0+1,740
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Fairton - Ashburton Northeast was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 9.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 79 and account for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 180 persons.

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