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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Fairton - Ashburton Northeast

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Fairton - Ashburton Northeast indicate a 53.7% increase in females under working age, a 142.7% increase in females of retirement age, and a 52.2% increase in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Fairton - Ashburton Northeast is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Fairton - Ashburton Northeast - Total females201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4304.5454.1624.1+32
5 to 9446.6655.8875.7+43
10 to 14477.1766.8996.4+52
15 to 19406.0565.1744.8+34
20 to 24152.2302.7402.6+25
25 to 29172.6262.3352.3+18
30 to 34192.8383.4503.3+32
35 to 39355.3595.3795.2+44
40 to 44548.2776.91016.6+47
45 to 49588.7837.51117.2+54
50 to 54609.1867.71167.5+56
55 to 59619.2948.41248.1+63
60 to 64649.7958.51288.3+64
65 to 69456.9948.41288.3+83
70 to 74507.6847.51217.9+70
75 to 79192.9625.6926.0+73
80 to 8430.4262.4523.4+49
85 and over00.0181.6392.5+39
Total persons661100.01,114100.01,538100.0+877
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Fairton - Ashburton Northeast was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 9.7% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 48 and account for 8.4% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 95 females.

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