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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Ashburton District Council

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ashburton District Council indicate a 12.1% increase in males under working age, a 40.3% increase in males of retirement age, and a 11.2% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ashburton District Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ashburton District Council - Total males201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,2447.61,2676.61,4296.5+184
5 to 91,1607.01,3457.01,5006.8+339
10 to 141,1256.81,3447.01,4856.8+359
15 to 191,0006.11,1846.21,2945.9+295
20 to 241,0006.19665.11,0995.0+99
25 to 291,0006.19985.21,1265.1+127
30 to 341,0256.21,1315.91,2645.8+239
35 to 399906.01,2596.61,3786.3+388
40 to 441,1306.91,2776.71,4126.4+282
45 to 491,1306.91,2266.41,3936.3+263
50 to 541,0906.61,1726.11,3756.3+285
55 to 591,0206.21,1776.21,3456.1+325
60 to 649805.91,1355.91,2975.9+317
65 to 697604.61,0305.41,1905.4+430
70 to 746503.98814.61,0514.8+401
75 to 794202.67263.89194.2+499
80 to 843602.25242.77683.5+408
85 and over3862.34532.46382.9+251
Total persons16,472100.019,094100.021,963100.0+5,491
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for males in Ashburton District Council was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 7.6% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 306 and account for 3.8% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 1,345 males.

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