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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Ashburton District Council

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ashburton District Council indicate a 18.1% increase in females under working age, a 40.3% increase in females of retirement age, and a 11.0% increase in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ashburton District Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ashburton District Council - Total females201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,1757.41,2486.61,4056.5+229
5 to 91,0406.51,3016.91,4506.7+410
10 to 149856.21,2316.61,3816.4+396
15 to 199105.71,0065.41,1095.2+199
20 to 248105.17764.18854.1+75
25 to 299606.09164.91,0344.8+73
30 to 349756.11,1015.91,2235.7+248
35 to 391,0206.41,2546.71,3756.4+355
40 to 441,1407.11,2746.81,4016.5+261
45 to 491,0806.81,2116.41,3776.4+298
50 to 541,1207.01,1626.21,3446.3+224
55 to 599806.11,1826.31,3396.2+359
60 to 649305.81,1356.01,3086.1+378
65 to 698205.11,1015.91,2275.7+407
70 to 746404.09365.01,1245.2+484
75 to 795403.47794.19864.6+446
80 to 844402.85893.17813.6+341
85 and over4032.55843.17373.4+334
Total persons15,968100.018,788100.021,487100.0+5,518
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Ashburton District Council was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 7.4% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 296 and account for 5.0% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 1,301 females.

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