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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Ashburton District Council

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ashburton District Council indicate a 14.9% increase in population under working age, a 40.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ashburton District Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ashburton District Council - Total persons201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,4207.52,5156.62,8336.5+413
5 to 92,2006.82,6467.02,9506.8+749
10 to 142,1106.52,5756.82,8666.6+756
15 to 191,9105.92,1905.82,4035.5+493
20 to 241,8105.61,7424.61,9844.6+174
25 to 291,9606.01,9145.12,1605.0+200
30 to 342,0006.22,2325.92,4875.7+487
35 to 392,0106.22,5136.62,7526.3+742
40 to 442,2707.02,5516.72,8126.5+542
45 to 492,2106.82,4376.42,7716.4+561
50 to 542,2106.82,3356.22,7206.3+510
55 to 592,0006.22,3596.22,6856.2+684
60 to 641,9105.92,2706.02,6056.0+695
65 to 691,5804.92,1315.62,4175.6+837
70 to 741,2904.01,8174.82,1755.0+885
75 to 799603.01,5064.01,9064.4+946
80 to 848002.51,1132.91,5493.6+749
85 and over7902.41,0372.71,3753.2+585
Total persons32,440100.037,882100.043,449100.0+11,009
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Ashburton District Council was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 551 and account for 5.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 2,646 persons.

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