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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Tinwald - Plains Railway

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Tinwald - Plains Railway is forecast to grow from 1,549 in 2013 to 2,059 in 2048, with the average household size falling from 2.50 to 2.40 by 2048.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Tinwald - Plains Railway. The period 2013 to 2028, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Tinwald - Plains RailwayForecast year
Summary20132018202320282033203820432048
Population3,8314,0444,1754,2994,4284,5824,7464,899
Change in population (5yrs)--213131123129154164153
Average annual change--1.09%0.64%0.58%0.60%0.69%0.71%0.64%
Households1,5221,6301,7111,7771,8411,9051,9692,034
Average household size2.502.472.432.412.392.392.402.40
Population in non private dwellings2222222222222222
Dwellings1,5491,6521,7331,7991,8641,9291,9942,059
Dwelling occupancy rate98.2698.6798.7398.7898.7798.7698.7598.79
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the total population of Tinwald - Plains Railway was estimated to be 3,831 people. It is expected to increase by over 468 people to 4,299 by 2028, at an average annual growth rate of 0.77%. This is based on an increase of over 255 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.50 to 2.41 by 2028.

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