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Ashburton District CouncilPopulation forecast

Tinwald - Plains Railway

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Tinwald - Plains Railway will increase by an average of 15 dwellings per annum to 2,059 in 2048.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Tinwald - Plains Railway. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Future residential rates are based on an analysis of historic development patterns and identified projects that are either planned or currently developing.

  • Tinwald - Plains Railway presents some opportunity for dwelling growth through future sub-division and infill development, mostly as a function of it being a suburb of Ashburton
  • The dwelling stock in Tinwald - Plains Railway is forecast to grow by an average of 14 dwellings per annum over the forecast period, although the rate falls in the longer term

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