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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Far North District Council

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Far North District Council is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Far North District Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • The Far North District has a relatively stable migration profile during the forecast period.
  • There is an increase in net migration in most age groups
  • Young and established families aged 35-39 years old with children aged 0-9 years experience consistent net migration gain throughout the forecast period.
  • Mature adults, empty nesters and early retirees aged 40-59 years moving to the District will increase in terms of net migration during the forecast period.
  • Early retirees and retirees aged 60-74 years also contribute to the District’s net migration gain over time.
  • The gain of older adults in the 45-64 age group assumes that an ageing population in the region and continued attractiveness of the District to “seachange” and lifestyle living minded groups will result in more people in this age cohort moving to the District.
  • The historic patterns of those aged 70 years and over moving out of the District will continue as older people move closer to healthcare and aged care facilities outside the District near main centres. This net loss in terms of migration also amplifies by the fact that there will be more residents aged over 70 in the future, enlarging the net migration flows out of the District.

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