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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Bay of Island Rural

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Bay of Island Rural indicate a 29.1% decrease in population under working age, a 76.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bay of Island Rural is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Bay of Island Rural - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)3346.52294.32484.2-86
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)4789.23476.54026.8-76
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)4869.43536.63495.9-137
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)3406.63817.13195.4-22
Young workforce (25 to 34)3937.63907.34347.3+41
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)1,08721.070313.290715.3-180
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)83816.278414.771212.0-126
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)69313.497618.388815.0+195
Seniors (70 to 84)4719.11,02519.21,41223.8+941
Elderly aged (85 and over)501.01422.72644.4+214
Total persons5,171100.05,330100.05,934100.0+763
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Bay of Island Rural was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 21.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 554 and account for 19.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is Seniors (70 to 84) years, with a total of 1,025 persons.

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