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LEARN MORE ABOUT .idBetween 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Bay of Island Rural indicate a 29.1% decrease in population under working age, a 76.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.5% decrease in population of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of Bay of Island Rural is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
| Forecast age structure - Service age groups | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay of Island Rural - Total persons | 2013 | 2028 | 2043 | Change between 2013 and 2043 | |||
| Age group (years) | Number | % | Number | % | Number | % | Number |
| Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) | 334 | 6.5 | 229 | 4.3 | 248 | 4.2 | -86 |
| Primary schoolers (5 to 11) | 478 | 9.2 | 347 | 6.5 | 402 | 6.8 | -76 |
| Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) | 486 | 9.4 | 353 | 6.6 | 349 | 5.9 | -137 |
| Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24) | 340 | 6.6 | 381 | 7.1 | 319 | 5.4 | -22 |
| Young workforce (25 to 34) | 393 | 7.6 | 390 | 7.3 | 434 | 7.3 | +41 |
| Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) | 1,087 | 21.0 | 703 | 13.2 | 907 | 15.3 | -180 |
| Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59) | 838 | 16.2 | 784 | 14.7 | 712 | 12.0 | -126 |
| Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69) | 693 | 13.4 | 976 | 18.3 | 888 | 15.0 | +195 |
| Seniors (70 to 84) | 471 | 9.1 | 1,025 | 19.2 | 1,412 | 23.8 | +941 |
| Elderly aged (85 and over) | 50 | 1.0 | 142 | 2.7 | 264 | 4.4 | +214 |
| Total persons | 5,171 | 100.0 | 5,330 | 100.0 | 5,934 | 100.0 | +763 |
Key findings
In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Bay of Island Rural was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 21.0% of the total persons.
The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 554 and account for 19.2% of the total persons.
The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is Seniors (70 to 84) years, with a total of 1,025 persons.
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