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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Kerikeri Township Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2017 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kerikeri Township Surrounds indicate a 37.8% increase in population under working age, a 60.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 34.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kerikeri Township Surrounds is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Kerikeri Township Surrounds - Total persons201720282043Change between 2017 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2015.12885.23234.8+122
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)3659.34928.85337.9+168
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)3398.64518.14697.0+130
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)2817.13846.94286.4+146
Young workforce (25 to 34)2817.14648.35378.0+256
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)63416.185215.21,04415.5+409
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)55814.160710.874311.1+186
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)64616.491916.41,00615.0+360
Seniors (70 to 84)57314.596217.21,35720.2+784
Elderly aged (85 and over)631.61723.12874.3+224
Total persons3,941100.05,591100.06,726100.0+2,785
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2017, the dominant age structure for persons in Kerikeri Township Surrounds was ages Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69), which accounted for 16.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2017 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 390 and account for 17.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is Seniors (70 to 84) years, with a total of 962 persons.

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