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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa indicate a 20.5% decrease in females under working age, a 96.5% increase in females of retirement age, and a 14.5% increase in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa - Total females201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41126.91055.41085.1-4
5 to 91438.81055.41085.1-35
10 to 141318.1975.01095.1-22
15 to 19865.41216.3874.10
20 to 24623.8874.5643.0+2
25 to 29664.1713.7693.2+3
30 to 34583.6763.9964.5+38
35 to 39935.7985.11195.6+26
40 to 441056.51196.21386.4+33
45 to 491147.11246.41436.7+29
50 to 541227.51346.91436.7+22
55 to 591237.61357.01537.2+31
60 to 641448.91497.71687.9+24
65 to 69965.91487.71667.8+71
70 to 74764.71296.71436.7+67
75 to 79432.71145.91265.9+83
80 to 84140.9633.31075.0+93
85 and over291.8532.8904.2+61
Total persons1,615100.01,927100.02,137100.0+522
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 8.9% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 71 and account for 5.9% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 149 females.

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