Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Ahipara and Herekino Area

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ahipara and Herekino Area indicate a 29.8% decrease in population under working age, a 70.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.8% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ahipara and Herekino Area - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42306.81785.61805.6-50
5 to 93059.02126.62066.4-99
10 to 142988.81956.12006.2-98
15 to 192346.92046.41504.6-84
20 to 241564.61444.51073.3-48
25 to 291414.21253.91103.4-30
30 to 341344.01304.11384.3+4
35 to 391695.01755.51875.8+18
40 to 442397.12036.42166.7-23
45 to 492447.22016.32216.9-23
50 to 542858.42076.52267.0-59
55 to 592718.02307.22317.2-40
60 to 642306.82357.42297.1-1
65 to 691815.32477.72226.9+41
70 to 741203.52106.62026.3+83
75 to 79651.91554.91725.3+108
80 to 84641.9953.01394.3+74
85 and over140.4481.5882.7+73
Total persons3,381100.03,194100.03,224100.0-156

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 88 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 139 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 172 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 202 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 222 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 229 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 231 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 226 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 221 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 216 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 187 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 138 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 110 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 107 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 150 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 200 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 206 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 180 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 48 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 95 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 155 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 210 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 247 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 235 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 230 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 207 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 201 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 203 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 175 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 130 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 125 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 144 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 204 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 195 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 212 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 178 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 14 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 64 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 65 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 120 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 181 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 230 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 271 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 285 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 244 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 239 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 169 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 134 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 141 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 156 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 234 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 298 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 305 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 230
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 39 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 44 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 17 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -8 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 19 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 20 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -15 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -37 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -54 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 34 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 30 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 91 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 90 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 66 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 5 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -41 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -78 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -43 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -36 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 5 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: -4 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -16 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -11 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -31 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -103 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -94 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -51
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Ahipara and Herekino Area was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 9.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 91 and account for 4.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 247 persons.

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