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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa indicate a 16.5% decrease in population under working age, a 95.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 17.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42417.32205.52345.2-7
5 to 92678.12235.52325.1-34
10 to 142748.42105.22365.2-38
15 to 192006.12616.51944.3-7
20 to 241263.81764.41403.1+14
25 to 291113.41403.51343.0+23
30 to 341153.51483.71854.1+71
35 to 391825.51914.72335.1+51
40 to 442106.42305.72716.0+61
45 to 492206.72496.22866.3+65
50 to 542467.52716.72926.5+46
55 to 592547.72827.03167.0+63
60 to 642618.03057.63517.8+90
65 to 692256.83258.13698.1+144
70 to 741614.92927.33307.3+169
75 to 791003.12446.12956.5+195
80 to 84451.41583.92465.4+202
85 and over441.41032.51824.0+138
Total persons3,282100.04,028100.04,526100.0+1,245
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 144 and account for 6.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 325 persons.

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