Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa indicate a 27.6% decrease in population under working age, a 51.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42417.31915.81825.5-59
5 to 92678.11955.91795.4-87
10 to 142748.41805.51825.4-93
15 to 192006.11966.01444.3-57
20 to 241263.81283.9993.0-26
25 to 291113.41163.51023.1-9
30 to 341153.51364.11444.3+29
35 to 391825.51755.31885.6+6
40 to 442106.42066.22216.6+11
45 to 492206.72096.42286.8+7
50 to 542467.52156.52266.8-20
55 to 592547.72276.92387.1-15
60 to 642618.02497.62587.7-3
65 to 692256.82597.92597.8+34
70 to 741614.92226.72236.7+62
75 to 791003.11825.51935.8+93
80 to 84451.41233.71554.6+110
85 and over441.4842.61173.5+72
Total persons3,282100.03,294100.03,337100.0+56

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 117 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 155 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 193 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 223 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 259 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 258 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 238 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 226 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 228 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 221 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 188 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 144 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 102 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 99 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 144 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 182 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 179 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 182 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 84 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 123 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 182 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 222 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 259 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 249 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 227 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 215 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 209 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 206 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 175 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 136 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 116 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 128 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 196 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 180 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 195 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 191 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 44 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 45 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 100 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 161 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 225 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 261 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 254 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 246 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 220 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 210 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 182 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 115 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 111 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 126 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 200 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 274 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 267 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 241
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 33 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 32 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 19 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 15 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -14 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -29 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -52 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -16 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -8 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 40 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 78 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 82 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 61 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 35 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: -12 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -26 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -31 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -11 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -4 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 21 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 5 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 2 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -4 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -94 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -72 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -50
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 82 and account for 5.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 259 persons.

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