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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2019, the age structure forecasts for Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa indicate a 4.8% increase in males under working age, a 38.8% increase in males of retirement age, and a 17.1% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa - Total males201320192043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41297.7924.61265.3-3
5 to 91247.41728.71245.20
10 to 141448.61527.71275.3-17
15 to 191146.81296.61074.5-7
20 to 24643.8804.1763.2+12
25 to 29452.7633.2652.7+20
30 to 34573.4723.7893.7+32
35 to 39905.4954.81144.8+25
40 to 441056.31206.11345.6+29
45 to 491066.41306.61436.0+37
50 to 541247.51236.21496.2+25
55 to 591317.81447.31636.8+32
60 to 641177.01608.11837.6+66
65 to 691297.71427.22028.5+73
70 to 74855.11417.11877.8+102
75 to 79573.4784.01697.1+112
80 to 84311.9482.51405.8+109
85 and over150.9311.6923.9+77
Total persons1,666100.01,975100.02,390100.0+723
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for males in Kaeo - Matauri Bay - Whangaroa was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.6% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2013 and 2019 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 56 and account for 7.1% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2019 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 172 males.

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