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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha indicate a --% stable trend in population under working age, a 105.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.1% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43106.63576.83796.6+69
5 to 93016.43396.53736.5+73
10 to 143888.23035.83425.9-46
15 to 192896.12715.22844.9-6
20 to 242004.21943.72033.5+3
25 to 291613.42264.32023.5+41
30 to 341894.01893.62233.9+34
35 to 392094.41863.52314.0+22
40 to 443196.82214.22744.7-45
45 to 493497.42615.03025.2-47
50 to 543908.33075.83275.7-63
55 to 593928.33847.33586.2-33
60 to 644409.44318.24107.1-30
65 to 693116.64518.64367.5+124
70 to 742304.94177.94567.9+226
75 to 791302.83797.24167.2+286
80 to 84691.52204.23405.9+270
85 and over310.71202.32233.9+191
Total persons4,709100.05,256100.05,778100.0+1,069
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 9.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 250 and account for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 451 persons.

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