Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Kawakawa - Moerewa

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kawakawa - Moerewa indicate a 17.6% decrease in population under working age, a 56.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 7.9% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kawakawa - Moerewa - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 430010.22458.72258.2-76
5 to 92769.42328.22157.8-61
10 to 142699.22197.71927.0-77
15 to 192408.22197.81706.2-70
20 to 242006.81525.41254.6-75
25 to 291515.11404.91224.4-29
30 to 341595.41415.01385.0-22
35 to 391655.61585.61565.7-9
40 to 441555.31655.81706.2+15
45 to 491806.11665.91726.3-8
50 to 542207.51736.11726.3-48
55 to 591665.71595.61646.0-2
60 to 641254.31495.31445.3+19
65 to 691113.81565.51385.0+27
70 to 741103.81334.71365.0+27
75 to 79551.9993.51244.5+69
80 to 84351.2712.51043.8+70
85 and over140.5511.8712.6+56
Total persons2,930100.02,830100.02,735100.0-195

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 71 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 104 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 124 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 136 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 138 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 144 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 164 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 172 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 172 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 156 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 138 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 122 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 125 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 192 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 215 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 225 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 51 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 71 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 99 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 133 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 156 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 149 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 159 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 173 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 166 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 165 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 158 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 141 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 140 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 152 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 219 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 219 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 232 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 245 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 14 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 35 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 55 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 110 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 111 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 125 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 166 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 220 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 180 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 155 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 165 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 159 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 151 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 200 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 240 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 269 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 276 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 300
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 20 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 33 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 25 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 3 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -19 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -5 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 4 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: -2 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -18 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -28 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -50 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -27 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -18 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -21 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 36 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 37 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 44 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 23 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 46 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 24 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -48 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -13 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 10 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: -18 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -11 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -48 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -20 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -50 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -43 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -55
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Kawakawa - Moerewa was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 46 and account for 5.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 245 persons.

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