Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Kerikeri Township

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kerikeri Township indicate a 8.2% increase in population under working age, a 33.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 15.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kerikeri Township - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42487.12476.02755.9+27
5 to 92517.22696.52936.3+42
10 to 142376.82806.83066.6+69
15 to 192527.22917.02806.0+28
20 to 241785.12285.52375.1+59
25 to 291765.02085.02415.2+65
30 to 341494.32155.22495.4+100
35 to 391514.32165.22475.3+96
40 to 441704.82265.42495.4+80
45 to 492075.92085.02485.4+41
50 to 542366.72004.82415.2+6
55 to 591905.41944.72315.0+40
60 to 642136.12345.62405.2+27
65 to 692025.82696.52605.6+58
70 to 741805.12365.72565.5+76
75 to 791464.22225.42575.6+111
80 to 841454.11914.62475.3+102
85 and over1755.02145.22685.8+94
Total persons3,505100.04,150100.04,626100.0+1,120

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 268 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 247 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 257 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 256 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 260 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 240 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 231 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 241 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 248 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 249 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 247 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 249 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 241 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 237 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 280 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 306 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 293 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 275 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 214 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 191 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 222 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 236 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 269 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 234 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 194 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 200 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 208 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 226 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 216 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 215 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 208 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 228 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 291 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 280 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 269 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 247 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 175 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 145 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 146 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 180 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 202 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 213 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 190 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 236 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 207 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 170 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 151 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 149 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 176 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 178 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 252 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 237 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 251 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 248
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 55 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 56 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 35 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 20 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -9 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 37 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 41 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 40 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 24 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 31 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 34 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 33 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -12 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 26 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 24 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 28 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 39 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 46 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 76 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 56 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 67 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 22 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 3 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -36 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: 1 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 56 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 65 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 66 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 31 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 51 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 40 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 43 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 18 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -1
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Kerikeri Township was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 76 and account for 5.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 291 persons.

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