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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Kerikeri Township

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kerikeri Township indicate a 36.8% increase in population under working age, a 55.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 41.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kerikeri Township is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kerikeri Township - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42487.13126.24086.2+159
5 to 92517.23416.84346.6+183
10 to 142376.83547.04516.8+214
15 to 192527.23577.14026.1+151
20 to 241785.12765.53385.1+160
25 to 291765.02575.13555.4+178
30 to 341494.32735.43705.6+221
35 to 391514.32765.53675.6+216
40 to 441704.82865.73695.6+200
45 to 492075.92595.13595.4+152
50 to 542366.72434.83435.2+107
55 to 591905.42284.53214.9+130
60 to 642136.12735.43315.0+118
65 to 692025.83146.23625.5+160
70 to 741805.12785.53525.3+172
75 to 791464.22565.13445.2+198
80 to 841454.12194.33265.0+181
85 and over1755.02504.93535.4+178
Total persons3,505100.05,053100.06,584100.0+3,078
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Kerikeri Township was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 125 and account for 5.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 357 persons.

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