Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Kerikeri Township Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kerikeri Township Surrounds indicate a 6.9% increase in population under working age, a 72.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kerikeri Township Surrounds - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42035.72165.02304.7+27
5 to 92226.32515.72635.4+41
10 to 142717.72776.32885.9+17
15 to 192396.82706.22655.4+26
20 to 241534.32024.62104.3+57
25 to 291063.01814.11833.7+77
30 to 341404.01754.01994.1+59
35 to 391494.21864.22204.5+71
40 to 442005.72114.82545.2+54
45 to 492747.82295.22715.5-2
50 to 542567.32185.02575.2+1
55 to 592637.42616.02765.6+14
60 to 642797.93568.13417.0+61
65 to 692918.23758.63877.9+95
70 to 742316.53427.83928.0+161
75 to 791444.12766.33637.4+219
80 to 84742.11964.52675.4+193
85 and over381.11503.42344.8+196
Total persons3,534100.04,370100.04,900100.0+1,367

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 234 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 267 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 363 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 392 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 387 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 341 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 276 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 257 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 271 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 254 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 220 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 199 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 183 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 210 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 265 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 288 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 263 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 230 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 150 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 196 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 276 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 342 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 375 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 356 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 261 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 218 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 229 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 211 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 186 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 175 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 181 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 202 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 270 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 277 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 251 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 216 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 38 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 74 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 144 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 231 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 291 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 279 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 263 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 256 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 274 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 200 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 149 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 140 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 106 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 153 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 239 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 271 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 222 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 203
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 84 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 71 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 87 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 49 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: 12 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -15 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 16 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 39 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 42 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 43 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 35 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 24 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 2 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -5 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 12 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 14 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 112 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 122 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 132 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 112 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 83 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 76 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -2 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -38 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -45 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 10 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 36 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 35 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 75 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 49 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 31 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 6 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 29 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: 13
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Kerikeri Township Surrounds was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 132 and account for 6.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 375 persons.

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