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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Kerikeri Township Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kerikeri Township Surrounds indicate a 44.3% increase in population under working age, a 106.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 44.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kerikeri Township Surrounds is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kerikeri Township Surrounds - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42035.72885.23234.8+120
5 to 92226.33406.13695.5+147
10 to 142717.73766.74036.0+132
15 to 192396.83566.43675.5+128
20 to 241534.32544.52904.3+138
25 to 291063.02314.12573.8+151
30 to 341404.02344.22804.2+140
35 to 391494.22544.63094.6+160
40 to 442005.72895.23565.3+156
45 to 492747.83095.53795.6+105
50 to 542567.32815.03585.3+102
55 to 592637.43265.83855.7+123
60 to 642797.94468.04747.0+195
65 to 692918.24738.55327.9+240
70 to 742316.54227.55287.9+298
75 to 791444.13225.84807.1+336
80 to 84742.12183.93485.2+274
85 and over381.11723.12874.3+248
Total persons3,534100.05,591100.06,726100.0+3,192
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Kerikeri Township Surrounds was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 191 and account for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 473 persons.

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