Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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North Cape - Houhora - Awanui

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for North Cape - Houhora - Awanui indicate a 35.6% decrease in population under working age, a 55.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 13.2% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
North Cape - Houhora - Awanui - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42807.41885.41845.3-97
5 to 92867.61855.31795.2-107
10 to 143288.72035.81835.3-146
15 to 192556.72065.91484.3-107
20 to 241804.71564.51233.5-57
25 to 291463.81564.41434.1-3
30 to 341353.61474.21564.5+21
35 to 391854.91574.51704.9-14
40 to 442657.01815.21975.7-68
45 to 492406.31975.62146.2-26
50 to 543068.12306.62316.6-75
55 to 593028.02878.22517.2-50
60 to 642767.32717.72597.5-16
65 to 692376.22848.12687.7+31
70 to 741654.42497.12677.7+102
75 to 791052.81905.42096.0+104
80 to 84501.31253.61634.7+114
85 and over511.3982.81323.8+81
Total persons3,789100.03,509100.03,476100.0-313

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 132 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 163 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 209 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 267 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 268 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 259 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 251 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 231 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 214 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 197 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 156 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 143 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 123 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 148 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 183 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 179 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 184 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 98 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 125 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 190 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 249 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 284 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 271 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 287 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 230 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 197 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 181 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 157 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 147 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 156 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 156 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 206 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 203 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 185 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 188 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 51 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 50 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 105 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 165 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 237 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 276 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 302 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 306 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 240 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 265 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 185 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 135 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 146 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 180 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 255 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 328 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 286 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 280
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 34 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 38 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 19 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 18 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -16 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -12 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -35 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 17 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 15 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -13 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -34 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -58 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -20 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 47 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 76 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 85 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 84 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 47 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: -5 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -15 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -76 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -43 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -83 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -27 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 12 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 10 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -24 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -49 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -126 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -102 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -92
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in North Cape - Houhora - Awanui was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 85 and account for 5.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 55 to 59 years, with a total of 287 persons.

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