Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds indicate a 23.6% decrease in population under working age, a 60.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.6% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42196.51655.11544.7-65
5 to 92497.41936.01805.5-69
10 to 142627.82006.21885.8-74
15 to 192336.92016.21705.2-63
20 to 242086.21685.21544.7-54
25 to 291654.91494.61434.4-22
30 to 341584.71574.81544.7-4
35 to 391634.91645.11635.0-1
40 to 441985.91735.31825.6-16
45 to 492487.41956.02036.3-44
50 to 543039.02307.12397.3-65
55 to 592898.62477.62467.6-44
60 to 642146.32648.12497.7+35
65 to 691845.52527.82277.0+43
70 to 741193.52056.31976.1+78
75 to 79692.11304.01695.2+99
80 to 84541.6932.91374.2+83
85 and over341.0571.7962.9+61
Total persons3,370100.03,243100.03,247100.0-122

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 96 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 137 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 169 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 197 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 227 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 249 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 246 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 239 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 203 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 182 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 163 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 154 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 143 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 154 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 188 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 180 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 154 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 57 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 93 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 130 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 205 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 252 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 264 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 247 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 230 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 195 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 173 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 164 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 157 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 149 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 168 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 201 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 200 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 193 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 165 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 34 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 54 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 69 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 119 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 184 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 214 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 289 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 303 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 248 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 198 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 163 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 158 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 165 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 208 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 233 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 262 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 249 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 219
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 39 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 44 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 39 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -9 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -15 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: -2 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: -3 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -14 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -31 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -13 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -13 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -11 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 22 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 39 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 60 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 86 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 68 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 50 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -42 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -73 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -53 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -25 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 1 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: -2 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -16 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -40 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -32 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -61 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -56 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -53
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 9.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 86 and account for 6.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 264 persons.

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