Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls indicate a 1.7% decrease in population under working age, a 33.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42246.71634.51614.4-64
5 to 91404.11664.61504.2+11
10 to 141584.71845.01534.2-5
15 to 191444.32145.91674.6+23
20 to 241594.71604.41704.7+10
25 to 291705.01604.41734.8+3
30 to 341544.61574.31694.7+15
35 to 391745.21714.71714.7-3
40 to 442036.01935.31945.3-10
45 to 492236.62155.92176.0-7
50 to 542547.52456.72456.8-9
55 to 592858.42687.32597.2-26
60 to 642848.42918.02857.9+1
65 to 693209.52918.02847.8-36
70 to 741845.52737.52627.3+78
75 to 791093.22165.92256.2+116
80 to 841043.11734.71784.9+74
85 and over802.41143.11564.3+76
Total persons3,370100.03,653100.03,618100.0+249

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 156 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 178 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 225 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 262 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 284 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 285 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 259 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 245 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 217 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 194 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 171 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 169 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 173 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 167 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 153 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 150 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 161 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 114 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 173 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 216 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 273 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 291 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 291 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 268 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 245 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 215 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 193 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 171 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 157 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 160 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 160 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 214 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 184 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 166 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 163 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 80 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 104 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 109 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 184 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 320 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 284 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 285 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 254 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 223 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 203 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 174 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 154 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 170 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 159 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 144 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 158 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 140 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 224
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 42 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 4 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -11 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -7 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -9 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 2 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 12 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -47 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -30 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -16 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -3 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 34 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 69 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 106 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 89 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: -28 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 7 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -17 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -9 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -8 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -11 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -3 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 3 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -10 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 1 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 70 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 25 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 26 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -61
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 9.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 106 and account for 5.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 291 persons.

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