Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Rawene - Opononi - Omapere and Hokianga South Area

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Rawene - Opononi - Omapere and Hokianga South Area indicate a 24.6% decrease in population under working age, a 51.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 12.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Far North District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Rawene - Opononi - Omapere and Hokianga South Area - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42847.52075.71965.6-89
5 to 92957.82246.22055.8-90
10 to 143128.22416.72096.0-103
15 to 192697.12236.21765.0-93
20 to 241794.71664.61464.2-33
25 to 291604.21474.11383.9-23
30 to 341293.41363.81353.8+6
35 to 391694.51554.31614.6-8
40 to 442245.91915.32015.7-23
45 to 492747.22045.72206.3-54
50 to 543058.02416.72406.8-65
55 to 592967.82627.32547.2-42
60 to 642897.62827.82527.2-37
65 to 692306.12727.52477.0+16
70 to 741744.62396.62336.7+59
75 to 791092.92005.52106.0+101
80 to 84591.61343.71674.8+108
85 and over401.0822.31133.2+73
Total persons3,799100.03,607100.03,503100.0-296

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 113 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 167 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 210 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 233 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 247 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 252 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 254 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 240 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 220 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 201 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 161 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 135 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 138 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 146 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 176 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 209 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 205 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 196 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 82 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 134 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 200 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 239 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 272 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 282 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 262 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 241 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 204 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 191 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 155 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 136 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 147 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 166 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 223 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 241 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 224 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 207 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 40 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 59 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 109 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 174 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 230 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 289 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 296 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 305 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 274 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 224 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 169 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 129 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 160 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 179 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 269 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 312 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 295 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 284
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 30 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 33 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -30 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -9 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 16 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 7 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -9 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -20 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -46 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -32 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -19 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -11 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 43 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 75 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 91 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 65 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 42 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -33 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -64 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -70 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -33 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -14 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 7 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -14 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -13 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -46 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -71 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -71 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -78
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Rawene - Opononi - Omapere and Hokianga South Area was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 91 and account for 5.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 282 persons.

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