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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds indicate a 21.4% decrease in population under working age, a 65.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 8.1% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42196.51705.11614.7-57
5 to 92497.41985.91885.5-60
10 to 142627.82066.21965.8-65
15 to 192336.92106.31825.3-51
20 to 242086.21765.31664.9-42
25 to 291654.91544.61514.4-13
30 to 341584.71614.81624.8+4
35 to 391634.91695.11715.0+7
40 to 441985.91785.31905.6-8
45 to 492487.42006.02126.2-35
50 to 543039.02357.12497.3-54
55 to 592898.62527.62567.5-33
60 to 642146.32688.02597.6+45
65 to 691845.52567.72356.9+51
70 to 741193.52116.32076.1+88
75 to 79692.11364.11775.2+108
80 to 84541.6993.01444.2+89
85 and over341.0581.7952.8+61
Total persons3,370100.03,337100.03,403100.0+34
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 9.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 92 and account for 6.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 268 persons.

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