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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls indicate a 35.8% increase in males under working age, a 38.0% increase in males of retirement age, and a 22.1% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls - Total males201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4925.61034.91254.9+33
5 to 9684.21115.31234.9+55
10 to 14865.31205.71244.9+37
15 to 19784.81215.81234.8+45
20 to 24694.2864.11154.5+46
25 to 29814.9924.41204.7+39
30 to 34724.4904.31164.6+44
35 to 39794.81024.91254.9+46
40 to 441036.31205.71475.8+44
45 to 491036.31225.81515.9+48
50 to 541207.31346.41706.7+50
55 to 591277.81446.91726.8+45
60 to 641247.61567.41917.5+66
65 to 6917710.81728.22048.0+27
70 to 741076.51507.11787.0+71
75 to 79573.51165.51515.9+94
80 to 84633.91024.81194.7+55
85 and over301.8592.8883.5+58
Total persons1,635100.02,098100.02,541100.0+906
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for males in Paihia - Opua and Haruru Falls was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 10.8% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 59 and account for 5.5% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 172 males.

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