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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Ahipara and Herekino Area

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ahipara and Herekino Area indicate a 9.2% decrease in females under working age, a 129.6% increase in females of retirement age, and a 14.2% decrease in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ahipara and Herekino Area is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ahipara and Herekino Area - Total females201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41207.21257.21507.4+31
5 to 91207.31207.01547.6+35
10 to 141408.51005.81276.3-12
15 to 191096.6975.6954.7-14
20 to 24714.3673.9633.1-8
25 to 29764.6593.5572.8-19
30 to 34744.5613.6773.8+3
35 to 39925.6754.41004.9+8
40 to 441187.1935.41195.9+1
45 to 491287.8975.61266.2-3
50 to 541609.71136.61306.4-30
55 to 591348.11277.41356.7+2
60 to 641106.61317.61306.4+20
65 to 69855.21538.91356.7+50
70 to 74593.61196.91266.2+66
75 to 79301.8945.41195.9+89
80 to 84251.5573.31095.4+84
85 and over00.0342.0703.5+70
Total persons1,650100.01,723100.02,022100.0+372
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Ahipara and Herekino Area was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 9.7% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 67 and account for 8.9% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 153 females.

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