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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Kerikeri Township

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kerikeri Township indicate a 37.3% increase in females under working age, a 56.6% increase in females of retirement age, and a 42.5% increase in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kerikeri Township is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kerikeri Township - Total females201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41186.31525.61955.5+77
5 to 91206.41625.92035.7+83
10 to 141166.21726.32186.1+103
15 to 191246.61796.62025.7+78
20 to 24935.01455.31775.0+84
25 to 29884.71344.91845.2+96
30 to 34824.31505.52045.8+123
35 to 39894.71585.82115.9+122
40 to 44955.01656.02146.0+120
45 to 491156.11495.42035.7+89
50 to 541236.51224.51724.8+49
55 to 591015.41144.21634.6+62
60 to 641176.21475.41815.1+64
65 to 691206.41816.62085.9+88
70 to 741015.41636.02035.7+102
75 to 79824.41515.52005.6+118
80 to 84894.81314.81915.4+101
85 and over1085.71575.72206.2+112
Total persons1,880100.02,730100.03,551100.0+1,671
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Kerikeri Township was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 6.6% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 70 and account for 6.0% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 181 females.

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