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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay indicate a 27.0% increase in population under working age, a 94.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 50.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41106.11445.11634.6+53
5 to 91106.11344.71504.2+40
10 to 14995.51274.51414.0+42
15 to 19804.41214.31233.5+43
20 to 24653.61063.71173.3+52
25 to 29603.31083.81223.4+62
30 to 34693.91204.21363.8+67
35 to 39854.71364.81554.4+70
40 to 44945.21364.81604.5+66
45 to 49854.71435.01805.0+95
50 to 541407.81726.02166.1+77
55 to 591307.22117.42577.2+127
60 to 6419010.52448.63128.8+122
65 to 6918010.02829.93429.6+162
70 to 741297.22338.23349.4+205
75 to 79905.02037.12827.9+193
80 to 84452.51354.72226.2+178
85 and over402.2903.11464.1+106
Total persons1,800100.02,844100.03,560100.0+1,760
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 10.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 114 and account for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 282 persons.

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