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Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast

Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds is forecast to grow from 1,296 in 2013 to 1,482 in 2043, with the average household size falling from 2.73 to 2.44 by 2043.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds. The period 2013 to 2028, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Ohaewai and Kaikohe SurroundsForecast year
Summary2013201820232028203320382043
Population3,3703,3443,3323,3373,3573,3813,403
Change in population (5yrs)---25-135202422
Average annual change---0.15%-0.08%0.03%0.12%0.14%0.13%
Households1,1811,2081,2351,2641,2981,3191,336
Average household size2.732.652.582.532.482.462.44
Population in non private dwellings140140140140140140140
Dwellings1,2961,3181,3471,3771,4081,4431,482
Dwelling occupancy rate91.1391.6591.6991.7992.1991.4190.15
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the total population of Ohaewai and Kaikohe Surrounds was estimated to be 3,370 people. It is expected to decrease by over 33 people to 3,337 by 2028, at an average annual growth rate of -0.07%. This is based on an increase of over 83 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.73 to 2.53 by 2028.

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