Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Ahipara and Herekino Area

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Ahipara and Herekino Area will increase by an average of 7 dwellings per annum to 1,581 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Far North District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • No major development sites assumed during the forecast period
  • Low infill development (6-8 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 1,581 2042 Total dwellings: 1,573 2041 Total dwellings: 1,565 2040 Total dwellings: 1,557 2039 Total dwellings: 1,549 2038 Total dwellings: 1,541 2037 Total dwellings: 1,533 2036 Total dwellings: 1,525 2035 Total dwellings: 1,517 2034 Total dwellings: 1,509 2033 Total dwellings: 1,501 2032 Total dwellings: 1,494 2031 Total dwellings: 1,487 2030 Total dwellings: 1,480 2029 Total dwellings: 1,473 2028 Total dwellings: 1,467 2027 Total dwellings: 1,461 2026 Total dwellings: 1,455 2025 Total dwellings: 1,449 2024 Total dwellings: 1,443 2023 Total dwellings: 1,437 2022 Total dwellings: 1,431 2021 Total dwellings: 1,425 2020 Total dwellings: 1,419 2019 Total dwellings: 1,413 2018 Total dwellings: 1,407 2017 Total dwellings: 1,401 2016 Total dwellings: 1,395 2015 Total dwellings: 1,389 2014 Total dwellings: 1,383 2043 Total dwellings: 1,581 2042 Total dwellings: 1,573 2041 Total dwellings: 1,565 2040 Total dwellings: 1,557 2039 Total dwellings: 1,549 2038 Total dwellings: 1,541 2037 Total dwellings: 1,533 2036 Total dwellings: 1,525 2035 Total dwellings: 1,517 2034 Total dwellings: 1,509 2033 Total dwellings: 1,501 2032 Total dwellings: 1,494 2031 Total dwellings: 1,487 2030 Total dwellings: 1,480 2029 Total dwellings: 1,473 2028 Total dwellings: 1,467 2027 Total dwellings: 1,461 2026 Total dwellings: 1,455 2025 Total dwellings: 1,449 2024 Total dwellings: 1,443 2023 Total dwellings: 1,437 2022 Total dwellings: 1,431 2021 Total dwellings: 1,425 2020 Total dwellings: 1,419 2019 Total dwellings: 1,413 2018 Total dwellings: 1,407 2017 Total dwellings: 1,401 2016 Total dwellings: 1,395 2015 Total dwellings: 1,389 2014 Total dwellings: 1,383 2043 Forecast development: 8 2042 Forecast development: 8 2041 Forecast development: 8 2040 Forecast development: 8 2039 Forecast development: 8 2038 Forecast development: 8 2037 Forecast development: 8 2036 Forecast development: 8 2035 Forecast development: 8 2034 Forecast development: 8 2033 Forecast development: 7 2032 Forecast development: 7 2031 Forecast development: 7 2030 Forecast development: 7 2029 Forecast development: 6 2028 Forecast development: 6 2027 Forecast development: 6 2026 Forecast development: 6 2025 Forecast development: 6 2024 Forecast development: 6 2023 Forecast development: 6 2022 Forecast development: 6 2021 Forecast development: 6 2020 Forecast development: 6 2019 Forecast development: 6 2018 Forecast development: 6 2017 Forecast development: 6 2016 Forecast development: 6 2015 Forecast development: 6 2014 Forecast development: 6
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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