Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Karikari Peninsula - Maungataniwha will increase by an average of 14 dwellings per annum to 3,147 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Far North District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Carrington Drive area subdivision - 254 dwellings (2014 - 2039)
  • Low infill development (5-7 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 3,147 2042 Total dwellings: 3,140 2041 Total dwellings: 3,133 2040 Total dwellings: 3,126 2039 Total dwellings: 3,119 2038 Total dwellings: 3,106 2037 Total dwellings: 3,088 2036 Total dwellings: 3,070 2035 Total dwellings: 3,052 2034 Total dwellings: 3,034 2033 Total dwellings: 3,016 2032 Total dwellings: 2,998 2031 Total dwellings: 2,980 2030 Total dwellings: 2,963 2029 Total dwellings: 2,946 2028 Total dwellings: 2,929 2027 Total dwellings: 2,912 2026 Total dwellings: 2,897 2025 Total dwellings: 2,882 2024 Total dwellings: 2,868 2023 Total dwellings: 2,854 2022 Total dwellings: 2,840 2021 Total dwellings: 2,827 2020 Total dwellings: 2,814 2019 Total dwellings: 2,801 2018 Total dwellings: 2,788 2017 Total dwellings: 2,776 2016 Total dwellings: 2,763 2015 Total dwellings: 2,751 2014 Total dwellings: 2,738 2043 Total dwellings: 3,147 2042 Total dwellings: 3,140 2041 Total dwellings: 3,133 2040 Total dwellings: 3,126 2039 Total dwellings: 3,119 2038 Total dwellings: 3,106 2037 Total dwellings: 3,088 2036 Total dwellings: 3,070 2035 Total dwellings: 3,052 2034 Total dwellings: 3,034 2033 Total dwellings: 3,016 2032 Total dwellings: 2,998 2031 Total dwellings: 2,980 2030 Total dwellings: 2,963 2029 Total dwellings: 2,946 2028 Total dwellings: 2,929 2027 Total dwellings: 2,912 2026 Total dwellings: 2,897 2025 Total dwellings: 2,882 2024 Total dwellings: 2,868 2023 Total dwellings: 2,854 2022 Total dwellings: 2,840 2021 Total dwellings: 2,827 2020 Total dwellings: 2,814 2019 Total dwellings: 2,801 2018 Total dwellings: 2,788 2017 Total dwellings: 2,776 2016 Total dwellings: 2,763 2015 Total dwellings: 2,751 2014 Total dwellings: 2,738 2043 Forecast development: 7 2042 Forecast development: 7 2041 Forecast development: 7 2040 Forecast development: 7 2039 Forecast development: 13 2038 Forecast development: 18 2037 Forecast development: 18 2036 Forecast development: 18 2035 Forecast development: 18 2034 Forecast development: 18 2033 Forecast development: 18 2032 Forecast development: 18 2031 Forecast development: 17 2030 Forecast development: 17 2029 Forecast development: 17 2028 Forecast development: 17 2027 Forecast development: 15 2026 Forecast development: 15 2025 Forecast development: 14 2024 Forecast development: 14 2023 Forecast development: 14 2022 Forecast development: 13 2021 Forecast development: 13 2020 Forecast development: 13 2019 Forecast development: 13 2018 Forecast development: 12 2017 Forecast development: 13 2016 Forecast development: 12 2015 Forecast development: 13 2014 Forecast development: 12
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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