Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Kerikeri Township Surrounds

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Kerikeri Township Surrounds will increase by an average of 21 dwellings per annum to 2,069 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Far North District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Ranui Gardens - 15 dwellings (2014 - 2019)
  • Access Heights (Riverbank Drive) - Surrounds section - 11 dwellings (2014 - 2019)
  • Crackerjack Crescent - 9 dwellings (2014 - 2019)
  • Awhitu Road development - 11 dwellings (2014 - 2019)
  • Stoney Creek subdivision - 12 dwellings (2014 - 2022)
  • Quail Ridge Development Stages 1-3 - 87 dwellings (2015 - 2025)
  • Pathways Drive - 18 dwellings (2016 - 2021)
  • Marsden Grove - 8 dwellings (2017 - 2020)
  • Neil Construction Development (Blue Penguin Drive, Fantail Rise, Fernbird Grove) - 33 dwellings (2019 - 2031)
  • Quail Ridge Development Stages 4-5 - 103 dwellings (2024 - 2034)
  • Low-moderate infill development (8-16 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 2,069 2042 Total dwellings: 2,053 2041 Total dwellings: 2,037 2040 Total dwellings: 2,021 2039 Total dwellings: 2,005 2038 Total dwellings: 1,991 2037 Total dwellings: 1,977 2036 Total dwellings: 1,963 2035 Total dwellings: 1,949 2034 Total dwellings: 1,935 2033 Total dwellings: 1,920 2032 Total dwellings: 1,901 2031 Total dwellings: 1,878 2030 Total dwellings: 1,853 2029 Total dwellings: 1,828 2028 Total dwellings: 1,803 2027 Total dwellings: 1,778 2026 Total dwellings: 1,753 2025 Total dwellings: 1,730 2024 Total dwellings: 1,707 2023 Total dwellings: 1,685 2022 Total dwellings: 1,661 2021 Total dwellings: 1,637 2020 Total dwellings: 1,611 2019 Total dwellings: 1,583 2018 Total dwellings: 1,551 2017 Total dwellings: 1,521 2016 Total dwellings: 1,492 2015 Total dwellings: 1,466 2014 Total dwellings: 1,447 2043 Total dwellings: 2,069 2042 Total dwellings: 2,053 2041 Total dwellings: 2,037 2040 Total dwellings: 2,021 2039 Total dwellings: 2,005 2038 Total dwellings: 1,991 2037 Total dwellings: 1,977 2036 Total dwellings: 1,963 2035 Total dwellings: 1,949 2034 Total dwellings: 1,935 2033 Total dwellings: 1,920 2032 Total dwellings: 1,901 2031 Total dwellings: 1,878 2030 Total dwellings: 1,853 2029 Total dwellings: 1,828 2028 Total dwellings: 1,803 2027 Total dwellings: 1,778 2026 Total dwellings: 1,753 2025 Total dwellings: 1,730 2024 Total dwellings: 1,707 2023 Total dwellings: 1,685 2022 Total dwellings: 1,661 2021 Total dwellings: 1,637 2020 Total dwellings: 1,611 2019 Total dwellings: 1,583 2018 Total dwellings: 1,551 2017 Total dwellings: 1,521 2016 Total dwellings: 1,492 2015 Total dwellings: 1,466 2014 Total dwellings: 1,447 2043 Forecast development: 16 2042 Forecast development: 16 2041 Forecast development: 16 2040 Forecast development: 16 2039 Forecast development: 14 2038 Forecast development: 14 2037 Forecast development: 14 2036 Forecast development: 14 2035 Forecast development: 14 2034 Forecast development: 15 2033 Forecast development: 19 2032 Forecast development: 23 2031 Forecast development: 25 2030 Forecast development: 25 2029 Forecast development: 25 2028 Forecast development: 25 2027 Forecast development: 25 2026 Forecast development: 23 2025 Forecast development: 23 2024 Forecast development: 22 2023 Forecast development: 24 2022 Forecast development: 24 2021 Forecast development: 26 2020 Forecast development: 28 2019 Forecast development: 32 2018 Forecast development: 30 2017 Forecast development: 29 2016 Forecast development: 26 2015 Forecast development: 19 2014 Forecast development: 17
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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