Far North District CouncilPopulation forecast
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Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Mangonui - Coopers Beach - Cable Bay will increase by an average of 15 dwellings per annum to 1,701 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Far North District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Eagles Way development - 9 dwellings (2014 - 2020)
  • Hibiscus Avenue subdivision - 38 dwellings (2014 - 2026)
  • Coopers Heights, Kauri Grove and residual Coopers Beach greenfield - 102 dwellings (2014 - 2030)
  • Cable Bay Estate - Stratford Drive - 80 dwellings (2014 - 2031)
  • Low infill development (4-9 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 1,701 2042 Total dwellings: 1,692 2041 Total dwellings: 1,683 2040 Total dwellings: 1,674 2039 Total dwellings: 1,665 2038 Total dwellings: 1,656 2037 Total dwellings: 1,647 2036 Total dwellings: 1,638 2035 Total dwellings: 1,629 2034 Total dwellings: 1,620 2033 Total dwellings: 1,611 2032 Total dwellings: 1,603 2031 Total dwellings: 1,595 2030 Total dwellings: 1,584 2029 Total dwellings: 1,567 2028 Total dwellings: 1,547 2027 Total dwellings: 1,526 2026 Total dwellings: 1,505 2025 Total dwellings: 1,482 2024 Total dwellings: 1,459 2023 Total dwellings: 1,438 2022 Total dwellings: 1,417 2021 Total dwellings: 1,396 2020 Total dwellings: 1,375 2019 Total dwellings: 1,354 2018 Total dwellings: 1,337 2017 Total dwellings: 1,319 2016 Total dwellings: 1,302 2015 Total dwellings: 1,288 2014 Total dwellings: 1,273 2043 Total dwellings: 1,701 2042 Total dwellings: 1,692 2041 Total dwellings: 1,683 2040 Total dwellings: 1,674 2039 Total dwellings: 1,665 2038 Total dwellings: 1,656 2037 Total dwellings: 1,647 2036 Total dwellings: 1,638 2035 Total dwellings: 1,629 2034 Total dwellings: 1,620 2033 Total dwellings: 1,611 2032 Total dwellings: 1,603 2031 Total dwellings: 1,595 2030 Total dwellings: 1,584 2029 Total dwellings: 1,567 2028 Total dwellings: 1,547 2027 Total dwellings: 1,526 2026 Total dwellings: 1,505 2025 Total dwellings: 1,482 2024 Total dwellings: 1,459 2023 Total dwellings: 1,438 2022 Total dwellings: 1,417 2021 Total dwellings: 1,396 2020 Total dwellings: 1,375 2019 Total dwellings: 1,354 2018 Total dwellings: 1,337 2017 Total dwellings: 1,319 2016 Total dwellings: 1,302 2015 Total dwellings: 1,288 2014 Total dwellings: 1,273 2043 Forecast development: 9 2042 Forecast development: 9 2041 Forecast development: 9 2040 Forecast development: 9 2039 Forecast development: 9 2038 Forecast development: 9 2037 Forecast development: 9 2036 Forecast development: 9 2035 Forecast development: 9 2034 Forecast development: 9 2033 Forecast development: 8 2032 Forecast development: 8 2031 Forecast development: 11 2030 Forecast development: 17 2029 Forecast development: 20 2028 Forecast development: 21 2027 Forecast development: 21 2026 Forecast development: 23 2025 Forecast development: 23 2024 Forecast development: 21 2023 Forecast development: 21 2022 Forecast development: 21 2021 Forecast development: 21 2020 Forecast development: 21 2019 Forecast development: 17 2018 Forecast development: 18 2017 Forecast development: 17 2016 Forecast development: 14 2015 Forecast development: 15 2014 Forecast development: 14
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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