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The 2021 population forecast for Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka is 1,930, and is forecast to fall to 1,688 by 2043.
Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka is bounded by Bay of Plenty Regional Council area in the west and north, the Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay forecast.id small area boundary in the east, and the Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke forecast.id small area boundary and the Hawke's Bay Regional Council area boundary in the south.
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