Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast
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Gisborne District

Births and deaths

In 2016 Gisborne Airport - Awapuni is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 2.51 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 1.94 in 2043.

Births are based on the published numbers of births by Area Units from Statistics New Zealand. The fertility rates by age are based on the published numbers of births by age of mother for Area Units by Statistics New Zealand./p>

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Gisborne DistrictYearChange between 2013 and 2043
Area20132043Number
Gisborne District2.432.40-0.04
Gisborne Airport - Awapuni2.461.94-0.52
Gisborne Central2.362.40+0.04
Kaiti North2.462.49+0.03
Kaiti South2.442.47+0.04
Makaraka - Matokitoki2.452.48+0.04
Mangapapa2.462.49+0.03
Riverdale2.272.38+0.11
Tamarau2.462.49+0.03
Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka2.412.45+0.05
Te Hapara2.452.43-0.02
Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke2.422.45+0.03
Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape2.432.46+0.03
Wainui - Okitu2.462.49+0.03
Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay2.402.43+0.03
Whataupoko2.462.49+0.03

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Gisborne District is based on the published numbers of deaths by age for Area Units by Statistics New Zealand. For historical years, rates are based on totals for Gisborne District, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances.

In 2016 Gisborne Airport - Awapuni is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 2.51 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 1.94 in 2043.

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