Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast
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Gisborne District

Components of population change

The greatest population change for Gisborne District is forecast for the period from 2039 to 2043, which is expected to have a net increase of 976 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
Gisborne DistrictForecast period
Component2014 to 20182019 to 20232024 to 20282029 to 20332034 to 20382039 to 2043
Births3,5523,5733,5503,5653,6063,677
Deaths1,9582,0362,1552,3182,4552,541
Natural increase/decrease1,5941,5371,3941,2471,1521,136
Net migration-810-990-724-520-229-159
Change in persons in non-private dwellings1171551140500

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2017.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2043 forecast population change: 204 2042 forecast population change: 192 2041 forecast population change: 194 2040 forecast population change: 192 2039 forecast population change: 195 2038 forecast population change: 195 2037 forecast population change: 184 2036 forecast population change: 228 2035 forecast population change: 184 2034 forecast population change: 182 2033 forecast population change: 163 2032 forecast population change: 145 2031 forecast population change: 136 2030 forecast population change: 141 2029 forecast population change: 142 2028 forecast population change: 173 2027 forecast population change: 133 2026 forecast population change: 140 2025 forecast population change: 175 2024 forecast population change: 163 2023 forecast population change: 183 2022 forecast population change: 133 2021 forecast population change: 114 2020 forecast population change: 156 2019 forecast population change: 116 2018 forecast population change: 166 2017 forecast population change: 43 2016 forecast population change: 222 2015 forecast population change: 291 2014 forecast population change: 178
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2017.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2043 Natural increase: 228 2042 Natural increase: 227 2041 Natural increase: 227 2040 Natural increase: 227 2039 Natural increase: 227 2038 Natural increase: 226 2037 Natural increase: 228 2036 Natural increase: 230 2035 Natural increase: 233 2034 Natural increase: 236 2033 Natural increase: 239 2032 Natural increase: 243 2031 Natural increase: 249 2030 Natural increase: 255 2029 Natural increase: 261 2028 Natural increase: 268 2027 Natural increase: 273 2026 Natural increase: 279 2025 Natural increase: 284 2024 Natural increase: 290 2023 Natural increase: 296 2022 Natural increase: 301 2021 Natural increase: 306 2020 Natural increase: 314 2019 Natural increase: 320 2018 Natural increase: 326 2017 Natural increase: 331 2016 Natural increase: 329 2015 Natural increase: 328 2014 Natural increase: 280 2043 Total deaths: 513 2042 Total deaths: 511 2041 Total deaths: 509 2040 Total deaths: 505 2039 Total deaths: 503 2038 Total deaths: 501 2037 Total deaths: 496 2036 Total deaths: 491 2035 Total deaths: 486 2034 Total deaths: 481 2033 Total deaths: 475 2032 Total deaths: 471 2031 Total deaths: 464 2030 Total deaths: 457 2029 Total deaths: 450 2028 Total deaths: 443 2027 Total deaths: 437 2026 Total deaths: 431 2025 Total deaths: 425 2024 Total deaths: 419 2023 Total deaths: 415 2022 Total deaths: 411 2021 Total deaths: 409 2020 Total deaths: 402 2019 Total deaths: 399 2018 Total deaths: 396 2017 Total deaths: 394 2016 Total deaths: 393 2015 Total deaths: 391 2014 Total deaths: 384 2043 Total births: 741 2042 Total births: 738 2041 Total births: 735 2040 Total births: 732 2039 Total births: 729 2038 Total births: 726 2037 Total births: 724 2036 Total births: 721 2035 Total births: 719 2034 Total births: 716 2033 Total births: 715 2032 Total births: 714 2031 Total births: 713 2030 Total births: 712 2029 Total births: 711 2028 Total births: 711 2027 Total births: 710 2026 Total births: 710 2025 Total births: 709 2024 Total births: 709 2023 Total births: 711 2022 Total births: 712 2021 Total births: 715 2020 Total births: 716 2019 Total births: 718 2018 Total births: 722 2017 Total births: 725 2016 Total births: 723 2015 Total births: 718 2014 Total births: 664 2043 Natural increase: 228 2042 Natural increase: 227 2041 Natural increase: 227 2040 Natural increase: 227 2039 Natural increase: 227 2038 Natural increase: 226 2037 Natural increase: 228 2036 Natural increase: 230 2035 Natural increase: 233 2034 Natural increase: 236 2033 Natural increase: 239 2032 Natural increase: 243 2031 Natural increase: 249 2030 Natural increase: 255 2029 Natural increase: 261 2028 Natural increase: 268 2027 Natural increase: 273 2026 Natural increase: 279 2025 Natural increase: 284 2024 Natural increase: 290 2023 Natural increase: 296 2022 Natural increase: 301 2021 Natural increase: 306 2020 Natural increase: 314 2019 Natural increase: 320 2018 Natural increase: 326 2017 Natural increase: 331 2016 Natural increase: 329 2015 Natural increase: 328 2014 Natural increase: 280 2043 Total deaths: 513 2042 Total deaths: 511 2041 Total deaths: 509 2040 Total deaths: 505 2039 Total deaths: 503 2038 Total deaths: 501 2037 Total deaths: 496 2036 Total deaths: 491 2035 Total deaths: 486 2034 Total deaths: 481 2033 Total deaths: 475 2032 Total deaths: 471 2031 Total deaths: 464 2030 Total deaths: 457 2029 Total deaths: 450 2028 Total deaths: 443 2027 Total deaths: 437 2026 Total deaths: 431 2025 Total deaths: 425 2024 Total deaths: 419 2023 Total deaths: 415 2022 Total deaths: 411 2021 Total deaths: 409 2020 Total deaths: 402 2019 Total deaths: 399 2018 Total deaths: 396 2017 Total deaths: 394 2016 Total deaths: 393 2015 Total deaths: 391 2014 Total deaths: 384 2043 Total births: 741 2042 Total births: 738 2041 Total births: 735 2040 Total births: 732 2039 Total births: 729 2038 Total births: 726 2037 Total births: 724 2036 Total births: 721 2035 Total births: 719 2034 Total births: 716 2033 Total births: 715 2032 Total births: 714 2031 Total births: 713 2030 Total births: 712 2029 Total births: 711 2028 Total births: 711 2027 Total births: 710 2026 Total births: 710 2025 Total births: 709 2024 Total births: 709 2023 Total births: 711 2022 Total births: 712 2021 Total births: 715 2020 Total births: 716 2019 Total births: 718 2018 Total births: 722 2017 Total births: 725 2016 Total births: 723 2015 Total births: 718 2014 Total births: 664
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2017.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2043 Total net migration: -24 2042 Total net migration: -36 2041 Total net migration: -33 2040 Total net migration: -35 2039 Total net migration: -31 2038 Total net migration: -30 2037 Total net migration: -44 2036 Total net migration: -52 2035 Total net migration: -49 2034 Total net migration: -54 2033 Total net migration: -77 2032 Total net migration: -97 2031 Total net migration: -113 2030 Total net migration: -114 2029 Total net migration: -119 2028 Total net migration: -145 2027 Total net migration: -140 2026 Total net migration: -162 2025 Total net migration: -130 2024 Total net migration: -148 2023 Total net migration: -184 2022 Total net migration: -189 2021 Total net migration: -213 2020 Total net migration: -179 2019 Total net migration: -225 2018 Total net migration: -271 2017 Total net migration: -294 2016 Total net migration: -107 2015 Total net migration: -37 2014 Total net migration: -102 2043 Total out migration: 4,195 2042 Total out migration: 4,179 2041 Total out migration: 4,162 2040 Total out migration: 4,146 2039 Total out migration: 4,128 2038 Total out migration: 4,111 2037 Total out migration: 4,094 2036 Total out migration: 4,077 2035 Total out migration: 4,061 2034 Total out migration: 4,045 2033 Total out migration: 4,032 2032 Total out migration: 4,021 2031 Total out migration: 4,010 2030 Total out migration: 4,000 2029 Total out migration: 3,990 2028 Total out migration: 3,982 2027 Total out migration: 3,973 2026 Total out migration: 3,967 2025 Total out migration: 3,959 2024 Total out migration: 3,953 2023 Total out migration: 3,953 2022 Total out migration: 3,952 2021 Total out migration: 3,952 2020 Total out migration: 3,943 2019 Total out migration: 3,941 2018 Total out migration: 3,943 2017 Total out migration: 3,951 2016 Total out migration: 3,941 2015 Total out migration: 3,916 2014 Total out migration: 3,914 2043 Total in migration: 4,171 2042 Total in migration: 4,143 2041 Total in migration: 4,129 2040 Total in migration: 4,110 2039 Total in migration: 4,097 2038 Total in migration: 4,080 2037 Total in migration: 4,050 2036 Total in migration: 4,025 2035 Total in migration: 4,012 2034 Total in migration: 3,991 2033 Total in migration: 3,955 2032 Total in migration: 3,924 2031 Total in migration: 3,898 2030 Total in migration: 3,887 2029 Total in migration: 3,871 2028 Total in migration: 3,838 2027 Total in migration: 3,833 2026 Total in migration: 3,806 2025 Total in migration: 3,829 2024 Total in migration: 3,806 2023 Total in migration: 3,769 2022 Total in migration: 3,762 2021 Total in migration: 3,739 2020 Total in migration: 3,764 2019 Total in migration: 3,716 2018 Total in migration: 3,672 2017 Total in migration: 3,657 2016 Total in migration: 3,834 2015 Total in migration: 3,879 2014 Total in migration: 3,813 2043 Total net migration: -24 2042 Total net migration: -36 2041 Total net migration: -33 2040 Total net migration: -35 2039 Total net migration: -31 2038 Total net migration: -30 2037 Total net migration: -44 2036 Total net migration: -52 2035 Total net migration: -49 2034 Total net migration: -54 2033 Total net migration: -77 2032 Total net migration: -97 2031 Total net migration: -113 2030 Total net migration: -114 2029 Total net migration: -119 2028 Total net migration: -145 2027 Total net migration: -140 2026 Total net migration: -162 2025 Total net migration: -130 2024 Total net migration: -148 2023 Total net migration: -184 2022 Total net migration: -189 2021 Total net migration: -213 2020 Total net migration: -179 2019 Total net migration: -225 2018 Total net migration: -271 2017 Total net migration: -294 2016 Total net migration: -107 2015 Total net migration: -37 2014 Total net migration: -102 2043 Total out migration: 4,195 2042 Total out migration: 4,179 2041 Total out migration: 4,162 2040 Total out migration: 4,146 2039 Total out migration: 4,128 2038 Total out migration: 4,111 2037 Total out migration: 4,094 2036 Total out migration: 4,077 2035 Total out migration: 4,061 2034 Total out migration: 4,045 2033 Total out migration: 4,032 2032 Total out migration: 4,021 2031 Total out migration: 4,010 2030 Total out migration: 4,000 2029 Total out migration: 3,990 2028 Total out migration: 3,982 2027 Total out migration: 3,973 2026 Total out migration: 3,967 2025 Total out migration: 3,959 2024 Total out migration: 3,953 2023 Total out migration: 3,953 2022 Total out migration: 3,952 2021 Total out migration: 3,952 2020 Total out migration: 3,943 2019 Total out migration: 3,941 2018 Total out migration: 3,943 2017 Total out migration: 3,951 2016 Total out migration: 3,941 2015 Total out migration: 3,916 2014 Total out migration: 3,914 2043 Total in migration: 4,171 2042 Total in migration: 4,143 2041 Total in migration: 4,129 2040 Total in migration: 4,110 2039 Total in migration: 4,097 2038 Total in migration: 4,080 2037 Total in migration: 4,050 2036 Total in migration: 4,025 2035 Total in migration: 4,012 2034 Total in migration: 3,991 2033 Total in migration: 3,955 2032 Total in migration: 3,924 2031 Total in migration: 3,898 2030 Total in migration: 3,887 2029 Total in migration: 3,871 2028 Total in migration: 3,838 2027 Total in migration: 3,833 2026 Total in migration: 3,806 2025 Total in migration: 3,829 2024 Total in migration: 3,806 2023 Total in migration: 3,769 2022 Total in migration: 3,762 2021 Total in migration: 3,739 2020 Total in migration: 3,764 2019 Total in migration: 3,716 2018 Total in migration: 3,672 2017 Total in migration: 3,657 2016 Total in migration: 3,834 2015 Total in migration: 3,879 2014 Total in migration: 3,813
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2017.
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