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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Gisborne District

Factors of population change

At the small area level, the key factors of population change are the age structure of the existing population, the housing markets attracted to and away from an area and their associated demographic characteristics (fertility patterns, household types etc.) and the supply of dwellings and mix of housing stock in the area.

factors of population change

Dwelling additions

The addition of dwellings is the major driver of population growth, providing opportunities for new households (such as young people leaving the family home and divorces) or households relocating from other areas.

Current age structure

The age structure of the local population impacts on Gisborne District's household types and size, the likelihood of the local population having children and to die, as well as the propensity for people to move. Age specific propensities for a population to have children or die are applied to each small area's base population. An older population will have fewer births, more deaths, while a younger population will have vice versa.

Birth rates

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Death rates

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances.


Migration is one of the most important factors of population change. While births and deaths are relatively easy to predict due to reliable age specific behaviour, migration is volatile, often changing due to housing market preferences, economic opportunities and changing household circumstances. Migration patterns vary across New Zealand' and change across time, but most moves tend to be short and incremental in nature. Regional areas have larger moves due to the distances between towns and cities, where people often move for economic reasons, mainly the availability of employment or education and training opportunities.

The most mobile age groups in the population are the young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. It is for this reason that young people often move the greatest distances and sometimes move against pre-established patterns. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation if appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

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