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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Gisborne District depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Migration assumptions influenced by:

  • Relatively stable migration profile expected across the 2013-2028 period
  • Gain of young family households (0-9 and 30-44 years)
  • Large loss of young adults and couples (16-24 years) as home leavers move out of the area to seek further educational and employment opportunities
  • Loss of mature family households (10-16 and 45-54 years)
  • Loss of 'empty-nester' and retiree age groups (55-79 years)

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