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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Wainui - Okitu

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Wainui - Okitu is 25-29 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2013 to 2018.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Gisborne District depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Migration assumptions influenced by:

  • Relatively stable migration profile expected across the 2013-2028 period, with lower rates of growth post 2018 due to a dwindling supply of developable residential land
  • Gain of family households (0-9 and 25-44 years)
  • Loss of young adults and couples (16-24 years) as home leavers move out of the area
  • Gain of 'empty-nester' and retiree age groups (50-64 years)
  • Loss of the elderly (65-79 years +)
  • Little change through migration expected in age groups 80 years +

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